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Mental Models

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galumay:
�If you wish to improve,� Epictetus [first-century Greek philosopher] once said, �be content to appear clueless or stupid in extraneous matters.�  One of the most powerful things we can do as a human being in our hyperconnected, 24/7 media world is say: �I don�t know.�  Or more provocatively, �I don�t care.�  Not about everything, of course � just most things.  Because most things don�t matter, and most news stories aren�t worth tracking. 

Howard Marks from Oaktree Capital, always worth reading. His Memos are a source of much wisdom, https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos

A collection of quotes from a recent memo,

We have two classes of forecasters:  Those who don�t know � and those who don�t know they don�t know.
 
                                                � John Kenneth Galbraith
 
 
No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that all of your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about the future.
 
                                                � Ian Wilson (former GE executive)
 
 
Forecasts create the mirage that the future is knowable.
 
                                                � Peter Bernstein
 
 
Forecasts usually tell us more of the forecaster than of the future.
 
                                                � Warren Buffett
 
 
I never think of the future � it comes soon enough.
 
                                                � Albert Einstein

galumay:
Munger talking about biases and how they can be used positively, as in schools of medicine,

Watch one, do one, teach one.

galumay:
attached is a transcript from a podcast from Farnam Street founder, Shane Parrish and CEO of AngelList, Naval Ravikant.

It is seriously worth reading, especially his thoughts on education.

 Naval-Ravikant-TKP.pdf (248.62 kB - downloaded 4251 times.)

galumay:
The secret of science is that its propositions, it hyposthesis, its theories are all falsifiable, that is its possible to construct an experiment or observation or collect data to prove it incorrect.

A non scientific belief is a stated belief that is not falsifiable by experiment, observation or collection of data, it could be wrong or it could be right!

galumay:
today I had cause to reflect on confirmation bias and how pervasive it is, it came in my work, trying to resolve a conduit blockage between 2 pits where I was trying to pull in an NBN drop fibre.

The obvious path was the 100mm conduit, it had only one telstra fibre cable in it so it was the obvious conduit to pull my drop fibre in through. When I identified the location of the blockage I dug down to try to isolate the cause and hit a 35mm conduit, i couldnt work out what it was and why it was there - i also couldnt find the 100mm conduit so made the assuption that the 100mm had been reduced to 35mm for some reason. In the end I rang a Telecom Tim to come and have a look at the job and he pointed out that there was a 35mm exiting from the pit so the 100mm must be to one side or the other, once we dug around a  bit to one side we uncovered the 100mm conduit.

The question he asked that showed how i had been blinded by confirmation bias was "have you tried rodding thru the 35mm conduit" - i hadnt because I was so focussed on the big fat 100mm conduit with just one cable in it that I never considered that I might be able to jump across into the 35mm conduit and get a path through that way. I had already come from the pit with the multiport and into the next pit via the 100mm conduit, so i had confirmed it was the obvious path, and kept trying to use it. It might well have been a simple and quick solution if I had only been able to step back and take a 'wider' look at the options and consider the less favourable, smaller conduit.

As it turned out the 35mm was blocked as well - but without Tim's wider view I would never have even tried that option.

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